Author Archives: clynch

A DEGENERATES LOOK AT THE 2019 MASTERS (ODDS & PICKS)

The most wagered on golf event of the year is here and we’re going to keep it as simple as possible while also considering a lot of the math and research that typically goes into to trying to determine the Masters Champion.

Everyone loves to try and pick which favorite is going to step up and win The Masters. But as far as Vegas is concerned, you should really be looking deeper than that. In the last 11 Masters, 61 players have been listed at 20-1 or better and only two of those 61 have worn The Green Jacket on Sunday. That means 9 of the last 11 Masters Champions have been longer than 20-1 dogs.

The numbers don’t lie, the par 5’s are the most important holes to the champions at Augusta. The last 12 winners have played the holes to par at these numbers:

+3 on Par 3’s

-40 on Par 4’s

-102 on Par 5’s

Those are staggering numbers which tell us something which may seem obvious but helps one narrow down the field, you need to be able to be long and accurate to win at Augusta. Taking it a step further we find that 15 of the last 19 Masters Champions have been Top 6 in greens-in-regulation on Tour.

And lastly, and this is my favorite stat, the average profile of the Masters Champion since Tiger won in 2005 is:

-31 years old

-Ranked 21st in the world or better

-Yet to win a major

Considering all of that, we come to three plays on the winner and two Top 10 plays.

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For those that are fans of fantasy golf, here is our team on a $50,000 salary pool:

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Good luck!

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A DEGENERATES LOOK AT THE 2019 VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP (ODDS & PICKS)

We’re only a few weeks away from the highly anticipated 2019 Masters which may be one of the reasons for the surprisingly strong field at this year’s edition of the Valspar Championship. We’re trying to follow up a pretty good run at the TPC where Rory got us a big W, so let’s get into it.

I’m not exactly sure why but everyone I talk to and read/ listen to seems to love Sergio this week. I’m not a big Sergio guy. I actually enjoy rooting against him. I think part of it is his face and the other part of it is his face during the Ryder Cup. The man has a terrible face and he seems annoying to me. He’s the fourth highest favorite coming in at +1500. People like him because in the past he has been very solid at Copperhead. Last year he finished just two shots back of the winner Paul Casey, in a field not quite as talented as this year’s crop. I’m personally staying away from Sergio, but I did want people to know he is a popular “experts” pick. Anyways, fuck Sergio. I can’t find any lines on him to miss the cut but I’m assuming they’d be around +8000, and I’d consider it.

Patrick Reed +2200

Ironically, a lot of people I know can’t stand Patrick Reed, but I’m a fan. I’m even more of a fan of just how well he knows this course and how consistently good he plays it. Patrick is 6th all-time at Copperhead in strokes gained. Last year he shot a final round 68 but was bested by Paul Casey’s absurd final round of 65. Reed finished 1 back. At +2200 he seems like kind of a long shot to come out on top this weekend, but I just see it as a ton of value. Patrick is one of our top plays.

 

Jason Day +1000

Jason is a play for us this week simply because of how important putting is on this course and how well Jason has been putting lately, He’s coming off a T8 finish this past week at TPC Sawgrass and was trending in the right direction on both Saturday and Sunday. A hot putter could allow JD to run away with this, so he’s a play for us.

 

Jon Rahm +1000

This was a tough call as we already had Jason Day with the same odds but I think this is too good of a spot to pass up on Rahm. Yes, he’s a lunatic. Yes, completely ignoring his caddie may have cost him a title this past week. But truth be told, I want my money on a vindictive Spanish firecracker like Rahm. The reality is he could go out and put up mid 60’s four straight days, that is the type of star he is.

 

Webb Simpson +2000

For whatever reason, I just keep thinking Webb is going to have a shot on Sunday when I look at this field. As soon as I started looking at odds on Monday, he continuously jumped off the page. Webb finished T8 and-5 last year at the Valspar and left a few putts out there on both Saturday and Sunday. Webb has eleven top-10 finishes in the past fifteen months on tour and I think it can be argued his game is better now than it ever has been before. We like Webb to give us a legit shot this week.

 

A FEW LONG(er) SHOTS

Jim Furyk +3300

Henrik Stenson +3500

Keegan Bradley +4000

These are all plays where we are just looking for a ton of value. Furyk is actually the all-time leader in strokes gained at the Valspar. And coming off of his performance last week, we’ll make a small play on him. Henrik is one of my favorite players on tour and is notorious for eating up Florida courses. He also has three top-10 finishes at Copperhead. Keegan has quietly been regaining his form over the last year and a half. He hasn’t missed a cut since last years US open and he has been one bad round away from contending in each of the last three events he’s played in. At +4000, there is a ton of value in a small play on Keegs.

Tournament Matchups

Webb Simpson -110 over Sergio Garcia

Patrick Reed -110 over Paul Casey

 

Here is a look at all of our picks:

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TPC Picks Recap (We Actually Had The Winner)

It’s always good when you’re going into Sunday and two of your picks are at least 4 shots up on the rest of the field heading to a championship duel. That’s exactly what we had with our picks John Rahm and Rory McIlroy, except the duel, never got quite as exciting as it could have. Rahm made some really disastrous choices on the back including one of the worst decisions I’ve ever seen a pro make, on #11. Either way, Rory got us a big WIN. Our TPC results are below.

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Rory really got us going on Saturday with a 2nd round score of 65 on Friday. That put him into contention with Rahm who made his run on Saturday by shooting a near flawless 64 on Saturday. Rahm actually missed a few inside 10 feet on Saturday that would have allowed him to put up a 63 or 62. Either way, Rory was electric on Sunday, even overcoming a ruinous double-bogey early in the round. We looked poised to experience a rare situation in golf betting, having two of our picks battling on the back nine on a Sunday. Instead, Rahm had a weird melt on 11. After watching Fleetwood come up short and find the water, Rahm had a decision to make out of the long bunker that runs 45 yards along the left side of the fairway. Lay up to the right in front of the water, and settle for a par, or try to fly it 200+ out of the bunker at an almost impossible angle, to have a shot at birdie. At the time Rahm was tied with Rory for the lead. Rahm seemed to have a serious disagreement with his experienced caddie Adam Hayes who advised him many times to lay up, take the par, and move on to 12 still tied. Instead, Rahm refused to listen to his caddie and hit it up 20 yards short directly into the water. I’m not even going to include video because I can’t find any and it was super annoying to watch your pick make one of the worst decisions in pro golf history.

While Rory was trying to put it away, Johnny Vegas and Eddie Pepperell hit two of the most absurd putts ever on 17. Eddie actually was the leader in the clubhouse for a few.

As we thought, Spieth and Mickelson really struggled and both missed the cut. I wouldn’t be surprised if Phil never comes back here, seriously. He has just been very bad here. If you have a good golf book and could wager for them to miss the cut, that was a nice lil payday.

We gave you Byeong Hun An as a wild longshot at +10,000 and when he finished his first rd, he was actually the leader. This course just fits his game so well because it’s more about technicality than distance and strength. He’s going to win on the tour and when he does, he’ll be a +8000 or more longshot. Keep an eye on him.

Xander Schauffele was shockingly pedestrian and really struggled from the get-go. We’re going to put him on the back burner for at least a weekend, but I do believe he has another W in him with so much of the season left to be played. Justin Rose was very bad at times and very good at others. But as the best player in the world tends to do, he found himself inside the Top 10 when it was all said and done. Of course, it makes it sweeter when we have the winner, but anytime one of our picks to win finishes in the top 10, we’ll take it.

DJ got us in the tourney head to head bet. It’s a risk when you bet against someone of Dustin’s caliber, but that is the risk you take to get a positive money line on a guy like Justin Thomas. You just have to tip your cap to DJ. He was incredible, played smart golf, and did everything he needed to in order to have a shot on Sunday. He was calculated and intelligent off the tee. He was very, very good with the putter, and made enough shots for a decisive win over JT.

All in all, it was a successful tourney for us with 3 winners hitting including the over all-tourney winner. DJ bested us in the match-up, but it was still a great weekend. Next, the tour heads to Innisbrook Resort and Copperhead in Palm Harbor, Flordia for the Valspar where Paul Casey is the defending Champion. I actually played this course about eight years ago, probably shot a 120, and it will give us zero advantage on picks this week. Let’s see if we can get another winner!

A Degenerates Look At The 2019 Players Championship (Odds & Picks)

 

If you’re new to the world of gambling on golf, congrats on having your life together. But also shame on you, no one likes an overachiever. There is nothing as exhilarating as having one of your long shots in contention on a Sunday. Likewise, there is also nothing like laying a little scratch on a favorite and watching them put up a ton of red numbers early and not even make it to weekend rounds. It’s all beautiful. Either way, throughout the PGA season I’ll be here sharing my thoughts and picks with you so that you can join me on the rollercoaster of emotions, use my name in vain at times, and make your Sunday’s out on the course a little more exciting when you go to check your phone. There are a few plays we’ll be looking at this weekend so let’s get to it.

This weekend the tour visits TPC Sawgrass and the famous Players Stadium Course. Some people call this the fifth major but that is stupid and something people say just to make the people at the TPC feel better about themselves. You’ll hear talk about the strong field, and how it matters and blah, blah, blah. There isn’t a player in the world who grows up dreaming of winning The TPC. The Masters, The Open Championship, The Ryder Cup, The TPC? No. Never. I’d argue that WGC events are more important but that is just me utilizing common sense.

Some Favorites To Consider

The weekly love for Brooks Koepka continues to pour in mostly because he is jacked and looks like a young Josh Brolin post “The Goonies” days. The reality is he is playing some great golf and at +2200 he is absolutely worth a look, but we’re not playing him this week. This is a challenging course that absolutely kills players that are not accurate off the tee. Brooks is nowhere near where we’d want him to be in stats like Hit Fairway Percentage, Driving Accuracy Percentage, and Shots Gained Off The Tee. I know you’re probably thinking “that was a long write up for a guy you don’t like.” You’re not wrong. My bad. Let’s get to who we like.

Rory McIlroy +1200

It’s no secret Rory has been playing some great golf but he hasn’t been able to walk off a winner yet. Rory has a second place finish and a pair of T-4’s. What we love about Rory this week, aside from him constantly being in contention is his ability to drive the ball long with a well-controlled power-draw, a shot that fits the toughest holes on this course. If he puts it together on the greens, we’ll feel good about being in Rory’s corner come Sunday.

Justin Thomas +1600

Justin Thomas is having an amazing year, but if you ask him he’d probably say he is a tad disappointed with his inability to finish. Justin roared out to a 5-shot lead at the Genesis open in Los Angles but suffered a semi-meltdown to finish second to J.B Holmes. He was also in contention at the Waste Mangement where he finished third, one of three times he has finished in the Top-3 this season. We know Justin is long enough off the tee to be a difference maker this weekend.  What we really want to see is that putter action he had the first three rounds at Riviera a few short weeks ago. Justin is another favorite we’ll be on this weekend.

Justin Rose +2000

Out of principle, I make a small play on J-Rose every week because he’s the best player in the world right now. If you don’t want to and he wins, haha. If you do and he loses, I’ll go fuck myself.

Longer Shots

Xander Schauffelle +2500

These long shots are value plays and they’re always worth a look. Some weekends they may be in contention, other weeks they may be drinking as much as you are on the weekend.  What can I say, it’s a crapshoot. Xander was a popular sleeper pick to win the Fed-Ex Cup and early on he showed why. X won the WGC-HSBC Champions as well as the Sentry. Both tourneys had legit fields and both weekends he was fantastic. Since then he has been solid with three straight Top 20 finishes but he really hasn’t threatened. He made a promising run at Riviera after a miserable start to finish Top-10. The reality is +2500 is amazing value for a two-time winner who is ranked #8 in the world. He can make a mile worth of putts and we know the stage won’t be too big for him. Xander is worth a value play this weekend.

John Rahm +2500

Johnny Babes is our top pick this week. That’s not to say we won’t have small plays on the aforementioned ringers, but we’ll have a degenerates sized chunk on the Spanish Stallion. Aside from winning the Hero World Challenge, Rahm only has one other Top 5 finish. “Then why bet on this prick?”, you ask? Well, he’s pretty good at golf. In all seriousness, this value is amazing and we’re taking advantage of his T45 finish in Mexico. Rahm comes in second on tour in strokes-gained off the tee, gaining 1.020 per round over his opponents with his tee shots. That is a stat we’re leaning on heavily at the par-72 TPC Sawgrass, which has four potentially-reachable par-five holes. He is a big-time player who has slightly fallen off the radar to an extent and we’re happy to have our money on him this weekend. Also, his name reminds me of Ramen Noodles, which never disappoint. Also, Also, Chad is a fan of his wife, which you can check out here Where Rahm puts his noodle.

Get Weird And Party Honorable Mention: Byeong Hun An +10000

Players To Avoid

Phil Mickelson +6600

Don’t do it. Just don’t. Phil hates this course and he’s missed the cut in 5 of his last 6. If he is in contention on Sunday, I’ll be annoyed with every time he does his lil hat tip to the crowd. It ain’t happening, though.

Jordan Spieth +5000

Even at these long odds, similar to when your father discovers you often dabble with peyote on the weekends, we understand it but just can’t support it. Spieth has never put together multiple quality rounds at Sawgrass and we really don’t see him challenging on Sunday.

Tournament Matchup FERDA

Justin Thomas +125 vs Dustin Johnson

Absolutely love this play this weekend. It’s not often you can get Justin at plus money in a tournament long matchup but Vegas has favored DJ over Justin this weekend.  We love this matchup so much because of the construction of the most difficult holes on the course. There is a lot of long dog-leg left par 4’s which absolutely don’t fit DJ’s strong power fade. In the past, he has had a problem trying to control his draw, a shot that Justin hit’s naturally and beautifully. Of course, DJ can go unconscious in any round he plays which is why we are staying away from a rd 1 matchup and focusing on the tourney match-up.

Good luck!