A DEGENERATES LOOK AT THE 2019 VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP (ODDS & PICKS)
We’re only a few weeks away from the highly anticipated 2019 Masters which may be one of the reasons for the surprisingly strong field at this year’s edition of the Valspar Championship. We’re trying to follow up a pretty good run at the TPC where Rory got us a big W, so let’s get into it.
I’m not exactly sure why but everyone I talk to and read/ listen to seems to love Sergio this week. I’m not a big Sergio guy. I actually enjoy rooting against him. I think part of it is his face and the other part of it is his face during the Ryder Cup. The man has a terrible face and he seems annoying to me. He’s the fourth highest favorite coming in at +1500. People like him because in the past he has been very solid at Copperhead. Last year he finished just two shots back of the winner Paul Casey, in a field not quite as talented as this year’s crop. I’m personally staying away from Sergio, but I did want people to know he is a popular “experts” pick. Anyways, fuck Sergio. I can’t find any lines on him to miss the cut but I’m assuming they’d be around +8000, and I’d consider it.
Patrick Reed +2200
Ironically, a lot of people I know can’t stand Patrick Reed, but I’m a fan. I’m even more of a fan of just how well he knows this course and how consistently good he plays it. Patrick is 6th all-time at Copperhead in strokes gained. Last year he shot a final round 68 but was bested by Paul Casey’s absurd final round of 65. Reed finished 1 back. At +2200 he seems like kind of a long shot to come out on top this weekend, but I just see it as a ton of value. Patrick is one of our top plays.
Jason Day +1000
Jason is a play for us this week simply because of how important putting is on this course and how well Jason has been putting lately, He’s coming off a T8 finish this past week at TPC Sawgrass and was trending in the right direction on both Saturday and Sunday. A hot putter could allow JD to run away with this, so he’s a play for us.
Jon Rahm +1000
This was a tough call as we already had Jason Day with the same odds but I think this is too good of a spot to pass up on Rahm. Yes, he’s a lunatic. Yes, completely ignoring his caddie may have cost him a title this past week. But truth be told, I want my money on a vindictive Spanish firecracker like Rahm. The reality is he could go out and put up mid 60’s four straight days, that is the type of star he is.
Webb Simpson +2000
For whatever reason, I just keep thinking Webb is going to have a shot on Sunday when I look at this field. As soon as I started looking at odds on Monday, he continuously jumped off the page. Webb finished T8 and-5 last year at the Valspar and left a few putts out there on both Saturday and Sunday. Webb has eleven top-10 finishes in the past fifteen months on tour and I think it can be argued his game is better now than it ever has been before. We like Webb to give us a legit shot this week.
A FEW LONG(er) SHOTS
Jim Furyk +3300
Henrik Stenson +3500
Keegan Bradley +4000
These are all plays where we are just looking for a ton of value. Furyk is actually the all-time leader in strokes gained at the Valspar. And coming off of his performance last week, we’ll make a small play on him. Henrik is one of my favorite players on tour and is notorious for eating up Florida courses. He also has three top-10 finishes at Copperhead. Keegan has quietly been regaining his form over the last year and a half. He hasn’t missed a cut since last years US open and he has been one bad round away from contending in each of the last three events he’s played in. At +4000, there is a ton of value in a small play on Keegs.
Webb Simpson -110 over Sergio Garcia
Patrick Reed -110 over Paul Casey
Here is a look at all of our picks: